WTXS21 PGTW 051300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 75.4E TO 12.3S 67.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 051230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 74.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 78.1E, 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 74.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 050638Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS CLEARLY SHOWS A TIGHTER
AND MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 30-KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO IT FROM
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
WESTWARD AND IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN ROBUST. THESE ARE EVIDENT ON
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061300Z.   //
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